Deforestation When you see the word, deforestation, you think of the Amazon River Basin in Brazil or the Congo River Basin in Africa, and you’re right on target. These huge, tropical rainforests are sometimes called the lungs of the earth, and make no bones about it, they are extremely important. Their loss would be catastrophic, but they are in grave danger. A few decades back our family went with a church building team from El Dorado First Baptist Church and Three Creeks Baptist Church to central Brazil. The final leg of the journey was flying from the town from Manus, Brazil in a regional carrier. We were flying over dense rainforest all the way to our destination, and I was sitting upfront almost by the co-plot, when I nudged the co-pilot and pointed toward the line of black clouds. “Thunderstorms?” I questioned “Just smoke from cattle ranchers burning the forest,” he replied. Yes, that was several years back, but deforestation is still taking place in Brazil. The recent environment summit in Scotland called for that practice to be eliminated, and Brazil has agreed. However, based on the President of Brazil’s pro-clearcutting actions over the past several years, few people expect him to hold to the agreement. However, deforestation is not just happening in the tropical rainforests, it is occurring every day in most cities and towns in the “Natural” State. Let me give you some examples from El Dorado. We don’t have a landscaping or tree ordinance in our town, so you can do just about anything with a piece of your property, if it pertains to trees or landscaping. Almost all of our parking lots are as blank as you can get them. Of course, there have been several studies that have compared landscaped parking lots with trees to parking lots without them, and the landscaped lots had 25% more customers than the non-landscaped lots. Dan Burder, a Senior Urban Designer, estimates that over its life a single downtown street tree has $90,000 in direct benefits, and on a residential street with trees, houses sell for an average of 10% more than a street without trees. It must be that El Dorado and most Arkansas cities don’t understand basic economics because we whack away as if trees just get in the way. Now let’s step on a few more toes. El Dorado has a relatively new high school, which is a gorgeous, well-planned series of inter-connected buildings. However, the site, which is a large significant piece of property, has been scraped off. It has one tree remaining in the front of the school. Hugh Goodwin Elementary, our award winning Blue Ribbon School, has just cut down a large pin oak tree, and over trimmed two others. But I will give them credit for planting one tree in the front. However, they need to add not cut down. But it seems the education community is unaware of the value of trees, since they cut down three sidewalk street trees in front of the headquarter building, which were trees I planted. Now let me put my money where my mouth is, which is planting trees, and if you want to join me jump in. I will make a $500 donation to the El Dorado School System, if the school will use it to plant trees on the new high school property. If you donate fifty dollars, it will be enough to plant a tree on other school properties, and it can be for any street tree on any public property in the state. Just send me your commitment of how many dollars you will donate, and where, and I will make sure those dollars buy trees. We must develop a pro-tree attitude, and plant a tree in every spot possible, and refrain from clearing the land when we develop. If you remove a significant tree from your property, you reduce its value, and that’s not environmentalist Richard speaking, but realtors and the IRS. What could be more natural to a state, which calls itself “The Natural State” than trees? Of course the history of our state is rampant with deforestation as the great east Arkansas flood plain of the Mississippi was essentially clear-cut and the huge swamps drained, and yes I know that made the fertile land available for farming, but instead of 95% deforestation couldn’t we have saved more? My uncle lived and farmed in the boot heel of Missouri, and he commented that at least 25% of the land cleared was less than quality farm land. I know when we hear about things such as deforestation, while China and India are still constructing coal fired electrical generating plants, we think we’re isolated from those practices, and if China, India, and Brazil would get their act together, we could get global warming under control. However, the problem is worldwide, and the cumulative destruction of forests whether they were cut down and eliminated a hundred years ago or last year created the problem. The earth has lost a huge percentage of its tree cover, and it continues to lose trees at an alarming rate. A study a few years back estimated 8 trees are cut down for every 1 planted. What the world needs now is more trees, and it needs an attitude that trees are a vital part of our lives, and are keys to a healthy planet. I’ve touched on attitude several times in previous columns, and of course, that’s the way it is with most things. Cutting down trees and not replacing them is an attitude problem. If we get right down to it, cutting down trees, littering the highway, not using plastic bags, and adding waste to our stream and oceans, are all part of the same problem. If we are going to restore trees to our towns and cities we must have the inner desire to consider trees an integral part of our environment. As I drive around and look at our town and others in the state, I look with a critical eye, and I see the empty lots and front yards where a tree would make a difference. However, we do have some excellent examples of landscaping with trees here in El Dorado. The next time you are downtown, look at the block north of the courthouse where Murphy USA, the former Murphy Oil Building, and the Newton Museum are located. What if the rest of our town looked even close to the way that block looks? We’re gaining on the trees and landscaping in downtown El Dorado (over 1000 downtown trees have been planted). And of course our town is better off because of the trees. Our downtown won a national award for the best Main Street Downtown, and one of the factors the judges commented on was the great tree canopy. Now if we can just keep our Mayor and Public Works Director from whacking them down, maybe our downtown can continue to be an example of how urban tree planting can beautify a downtown as well as cut utility cost. Just think; if everyone who reads this column would plant one tree what a difference it would make. Plant a tree!

Global Warming, an Update Global Warming, (An Update) Yes, I know we’ve almost worn out the phrase, and it’s fashionable to say climate change. But what in hell is climate change? What we have is a planet, which is actually warming. Now that is an absolute fact, and this year is on track to be the hottest year in recorded history. You would think, with the extreme climate changes, the predicted consequences, and our advanced technology, every country in the world would be gearing up to reverse the trend, and they are...except one…the USA. That’s right and the current powers that be, out of a 100+ countries on the planet, are the only one denying global warming. They’re calling it a hoax just like the Covid-19. Well, how is that working out? I’m writing this column because it is becoming obvious the predictions that extreme weather, which would result as the Earth’s temperature increase, is not only coming to pass, but it is accelerating. The extreme weather that was predicted to happen starting ten years from now is already pounding us. If you live in Lake Charles, Louisiana, and you look at the rubble from two hurricanes, you understand what the future of the entire Gulf Coast of the United States is going to look like in a decade or so. I don’t think I need to tell you that this year was a record hurricane season, and as the waters of the Gulf continue to heat, next year and the year after that will result in more and stronger hurricanes. How long will it be until a large percentage of the Gulf Coast becomes uninhabitable? Am I being an alarmist? Why don’t you ask the folks living in Lake Charles how many more hurricanes will it take before the town is abandoned? Of course, as the waters of the Gulf continue to heat, Category 4 and 5 storms will be the norm. El Dorado had two tropical storms this year. Guess what? We’re having weather very similar to a sub-tropical climate, and that’s not just tropical storms. Just look back at the summer weather we had this year. Those July and August rains, which moved north from the Gulf weren’t anything like our typical south Arkansas weather. Those were waves of heavily, moisture-laden sub-tropical clouds. Check out Houston if you want to get a real feel for the coming sub-tropics. One hundred year rainfalls are now becoming commonplace. If the Earth’s temperature continues to increase and the polar ice caps thaw, which is already happening at an astonishing rate, these massive hurricanes will be accompanied by a rise in sea level that will swamp the towns along the Gulf Coast until only the very largest cities, with the resources to construct massive coastal barriers will be able to survive. The inhabitants of the smaller towns will be forced to evacuate and the Gulf of Mexico will encroach 10 to 15 miles inland. How long have we got to stop this from happening? A few years back we were looking at 25 + years, but now? If the current increases in temperature continues and the storm intensity follows, we may see a new Gulf shoreline as much as five to ten miles inland within the next 15 years. That scenario will make the current pandemic look like a Sunday School Picnic. Some called the pandemic a hoax and 400,000 Americans will eventually die. How many worldwide lives will be lost as severe weather and drought sweeps across the continents? But don’t think just the Gulf Coast is going to get hammered. During the past year extreme weather has produced tornadoes in sections of the country where they were unheard of. Of course, the West Coast wildfires, which were caused by extreme drought conditions, burned a record amount of land, and as those weather conditions continue, the threat of wildfires will increase. Yes, the West Coast droughts and accompanying wildfires are a result of global warming. But as severe as the hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires are, they pale with the consequences of a 4 to 6 foot rise in sea level. The number of worldwide towns and cities that are at or actually below sea level is staggering. It will be impossible to even consider protecting all of the inhabited coastal land around the world, which will be threatened by a rise in sea level. A few major cities will have the resources to keep from being swamped by rising sea level, but a large majority of inhabited coastline towns will simply be allowed to submerge below the rising waters. Yes, the consequences of inaction on global warming are horrific. However, it has become a so called mantra of some politicians to deny that global warming is occurring. It seems as if we are having to start the learning curve all over again as we have with the pandemic. But what is different, is that the pandemic will run its course, and in a year or so we will have a vaccine or herd immunity, and we will be through with it. But that is not the way global warming works. If we allow the continuing heating of our planet’s atmosphere, it will reach a point where the quality of life on our planet will be tenuous for several billion inhabitants of Earth. Unless our country not only joins the rest of the world to try and reverse global warming, but actively takes a leading role, the prospects for a severe reduction in the quality of life for billions of our planet’s future population is grim. We must attack global warming with the same intensity as we would a major threat such as a World War. So why are we dragging our feet? Actually, it’s not just foot dragging but, we are actively opposing the curtailment of activities, which would slow or stop global warming. I know, with the current avalanche of facts about hurricanes, droughts, and rising sea level, that’s hard to believe. But it is happening. Of course there is a reason, and in our capitalistic society, sometimes the desire to make money without considering the consequences, dominates everything, and the desire to just make money now and forget about future generations dominates the goal to stop global warming. Yes, it is all about the greed to make money now and to hell with the future. It’s the same concept as the slash and burn of the vast, east Arkansas old growth forests that took place late 1800s. The United States, who led the world to stamp out fascism, must take the lead again. Unless our country assumes the mantle of leadership and leads the way to reverse global warming, we will be dooming our great grandchildren to live in a vastly inferior world. Surely, we can put aside petty, political rhetoric, and once again lead a worldwide coalition to combat the greatest threat to mankind in recorded history. If we care about future generations every person should become actively involved. Only then can we reverse what seem to be an inevitable severe reduction in the quality of life for Earth’s future inhabitants.

Tread Softly on the Blue Planet-------Tread Softly on the Blue Planet Have you ever sat down in a symphony hall and when the orchestra rose to full volume on an especially moving piece, marveled at the blend of instruments that could produce such an overwhelming sound? I guess you could say the same thing about the rock group The Grateful Dead. Now, consider removing the violins from the symphony, or the bass guitar from The Grateful Dead. The sound is not the same is it? When an integral part of any band or symphony is missing, the music suffers. I believe life on the blue planet, we call Earth, mirrors a symphony orchestra. John Muir wrote that "When we try to pick out anything by itself, we find it hitched to everything else in the Universe." John Muir's perception certainly makes a person consider the consequences when we intervene in nature to remove a species, or when we alter our environment to the point where whole ecosystems perish. Now, I know this seems to be an abstract something, which you might nod your head in agreement. But let's get right down to our backyards. Does this concept alter our daily life or activities? For a moment, think about your reactions to nature. Here is a fairly extreme example of what I mean. A few months back, I walked out on my backyard deck. It was one of those first really warm summer days. Birds were everywhere, squirrels in the trees, and then I saw it. Out from under our large backyard deck came a big copperhead snake, almost two feet long. Now what would be your reaction? Get the hoe? Get the gun? Kill that snake? When I grew up on a small South Arkansas farm that would have been the automatic reaction. In fact, anything that could be a threat to anybody was automatically killed. And on top of that, anything that posed even a remote threat to our crops, livestock or property was killed. That thought process in the past gave us an open season on everything from snakes to chicken hawks to beaver to sparrows, and of course in previous years the State Game and Fish Commission had put bounties on wolves, cougars, and bobcats. I’m sorry to say that mentality, which prevails even to this day, has resulted in a wholesale destruction of hundreds of species simply because we view them as a perceived threat to us. They are considered undesirable wildlife. Well, are we actually threatened by wildlife? When was the last time you heard of anybody being killed by snakebite, or how many chickens have you ever seen snared by a "chicken" hawk? I lived on a farm covered up with chickens for years, and I never saw a hawk take even one chicken. But what are your odds of being killed by snakebite, cougars, bears, or any other creature? I dare say, the odds are better of you being struck by lightning, dying from an ingrown toenail, or being killed by a cow. So, what should be our reaction to the parts of nature we consider as undesirable? Of course that requires us to classify every part of nature as either desirable or undesirable. Where do you start and where do you stop. How about the snakes, coyotes, sparrows, hawks, wolves, beaver, armadillos, and you could go on and on. But while we are classifying shouldn’t we consider how removing them degrades the blue planet? Well, let’s go back to my backyard deck again. I watched the copperhead snake slowly moved through the azaleas, and as I watched it for another five minutes, it slowly worked its way around the deck, and then disappeared into some leaves. I would imagine I'll see not only this one, but several small copperheads around the deck this fall, and from the looks of it, I probably have an active copperhead den right in my backyard. I may get bitten, but I doubt it. I don't know exactly what part copperheads play in the harmony of nature, maybe they hold down the toad frog population. I don't know, but I have become convinced they deserve to live just as much as those beautiful bluebirds who nest in my bluebird box. But copperhead snakes are just a part of what you might call my snaky backyard. A big brown water snake has a den beside our patio, just adjacent to my backyard pond, and this spring it birthed several little ones. In our front yard I frequently see garter snakes and green snakes, and in the pond right off our deck, I would venture a guess that I have a water moccasin or two. I’m faced with the choice, how can I arbitrarily try to promote the well-being of one part of our environment, while I destroy another part? But should I have killed the copperhead? I’m sure a goodly number of my readers will say “Hell, yes!” Of course a copperhead is a threat, but should we kill all the pit bulldogs? More people are killed by pit-bulls than by copperheads. Tough questions. Now back to the farm for a moment. When I was eight years old, my Dad placed a bolt action 20 gauge shotgun in my hands. His words of advice still ring clear. "Don't shoot anything you're not going to eat." Back then we supplemented many of our meals with game I killed and fish I caught. We even ate possum, coon, and armadillo. I guess this concept still drives my hunting and fishing. I can't imagine shooting a duck and not retrieving it, or catching a stringer full of fish and not dressing them. And today, I can't imagine shooting a hawk or killing a snake or killing anything I'm not going to eat. This concept makes me oppose trapping beaver. Not because trapping is wrong, but because the beaver are being killed and just thrown away because the dams they build may kill a few acres of scraggly timber. On top of that, about 1/3 of the catch in beaver traps are otter. Again, just killed and thrown away. And the much maligned coyotes? Well, send a few more my way, the coons, possum and armadillo are overrunning my place. I'm in the city limits, so if nature doesn't control itself, we are going to be knee deep in whatever can adapt to the scraps of habitat we have left them. So the next time you set up a bug zapper, which by the way doesn't attract the mosquitos that bite you, think about the harmony of nature. Wouldn't the addition of a birdhouse for fifty purple martins to eat those mosquitoes make for more harmony than the sizzle of a bug zapper? Yes, I want the woods to be diverse, and if that means adding a little discomfort and danger, so be it. In life, I have always found that the more varied and diverse life becomes, the more meaningful it is. Our blue planet is rich and wonderfully crafted, and if we want the best life possible we should tread softly on its surface, and put away forever the slash, burn, and kill mentality of another generation.

KICKING THE PANDEMIC’S ASS Since the Pandemic is hogging the news lately, I thought I might as well give you my 2 cents worth. Just to start things off, let me just say this, “I hate wearing a bloody mask!” (If you’re British, you get my point.) But I’m wearing one, because I’m more afraid of ventilators than being a little uncomfortable. Actually, I know, I’m deathly allergic to ventilators. But stupid masks are just the tip of why I hate about the pandemic; I’m bored! I want to eat at Galitories in New Orleans so badly I can taste it, but since Louisiana is Coronavirus Central, and the good old USA is leading the world in Coronavirus deaths, I think heading to New Orleans would be like a death wish. Yes, we’re trapped like rats in a house full of cats, and we’re trying to dodge the ones we call Covid-19, but we’re doing a terrible job of dodging them, and when we get a runny nose, we panic, take our temperature, and wonder if that tiny, sore throat is drainage, or horrors—the Coronavirus! But I’m just getting started; and if you have a few more minutes hear me out. If I had to rank things the virus has stopped me from doing; going to Church, teaching Sunday School, and singing in the Choir would top the list. I know I could show up masked, sit on an empty row, and try to sing through a stupid mask, but my attitude would be so bad, I think Jesus would give the virus. So I’m not going to church until two weeks after I get the vaccine shot. Oh, would I take the virus vaccine shot? Hell, yes! I would take the Russian one or the Chinese nose spray, or the one they gave the six monkeys, in a New York minute. But do we actually have a problem? Or is the Coronavirus just a hoax? And are the only ones who die are the very elderly with serious preexisting illnesses? Yes, we sure do have a damn problem. It’s not a hoax, and the +200,000 dead Americans weren’t all old timers! But this problem is not just an American one. It is a worldwide one. We know it started in China, spread to Europe and Asia, and then to the USA. We had more time to prepare than any other part of the world. How was our preparation? We started out by saying it was just another flu and then a hoax. And the result? So far the United States leads the world in cases and deaths. As the virus swept through Europe and headed our way, we knew it wouldn’t hop over the USA...and it didn’t. We are the most technologically advanced nation on Earth, and yet we are doing the worst job on Earth. That is just a fact measured by any criterion you want to use. We have a fraction of the number of people than the countries of China and India, but we have more cases and deaths. The job we are doing on a daily basis is beyond horrible. The governor of Florida has just announced the state is opening up. With virus cases in Florida still soaring that is unbelievable! Is the Governor trying to reduce the population? But it’s not just in Florida. We have churches telling their members masks are optional, and national political rallies, which thousands attend most without masks and no social distancing. We are saying in effect that another 200,000 deaths are okay. Before the virus is under control, just by the horrible job we are doing right now, another 200,000 Americans will possibly die. Do we give a damn that by the time we get a vaccine 400,000 Americans will have died? I guess we don’t, not by the way we’re responding. Now, let’s step on some toes, and to start with, if you aren’t wearing a stupid mask in public you are beyond dumb, especially if you are going to any large gathering. Of course, you can tell me it’s your constitutional right not to wear a mask, and you can go anywhere you want, and if it’s to a big motorcycle rally with 400,000 attendees, where it would be statistically impossible for some of the group not to have the virus, that’s your right! And if you go and catch the virus, come home, and visit your mother in a nursing home and give it to her, and she infects 50 residents of the nursing home and a dozen die. You’re saying, “Yes, as an American, I’m within my rights, and I don’t care how many people die.” Or as another bad example; the President just announced his pick for the Supreme Court to a large crowd of almost all unmasked folks sitting shoulder to shoulder. No wonder we’re leading the world in covid-19 deaths! Well, I don’t think going on and on about not being able to do things such as going on a vacation, taking in a movie, or just having a Welcome to Fall party for 25 of my friends accomplishes anything, because we’re all in the same boat, and I hope you are paddling the boat and not expecting others to get you across the pandemic. Yes, there are a lot of y’all who aren’t paddling, and I guess the teens and twenties folks, who think they are bulletproof, are the biggest problems. But it’s just not the younger folks who are causing the virus to spread like a California wildfire. Not on your life. But why are we doing such a terrible job? Don’t we know how to control the spread of the virus? Sure we do. There are numerous countries that have suppressed the virus, and have limited the number of deaths. All we had to do was follow their lead. Our European allies are aghast at the horrible job we’re doing. If we want to control the virus, we should follow the excellent job New Zealand is doing, or any of the European countries. (1) Nationwide mandatory masks when in public. (2) Prohibit the gathering of more than 25 individual and observe social distancing. (3) Enforcement of these rules with heavy mandatory fines. (4) Close the bars and casinos until the virus is completely under control. (5) Do massive testing, quarantines, and sanitizing. It all boils down to whether you give a damn. That’s as blunt as I can make it, and if you’re in public with no mask, you might as well write on your forehead, “I don’t give a damn if you die!” Now let’s give some grades, so here goes: as a National grade I would give our Country something below an F. On a State level, we’re at least, up to a D. However, the worst grades go to the ministers who say masks and social distancing are optional. These ministers know better. How can a Christian not wear a mask? If you are a Christian and don’t wear a mask you break Jesus’s “love your neighbor as yourself” command. Yes, for you non-masked individuals that’s a bitter pill to swallow.

*The End of Oil in Near *That is the exact title of the feature article in the latest Sierra Club magazine. Well, since I’m an oilman and a Sierra Club member, I couldn’t wait to read how the oil industry, which I have worked in for nearly 50 years, was going to go kaput. I won’t go into details of how the writer of the article came up with that eye-grabbing title, but let me just say this. The article is long, sleep inducing.....and just plain wrong. The writer is wrong for several reasons, and the first and foremost is the energy replacement for oil is just not here yet. Even the most optimistic scenarios for the use of the alternative energy still has oil and natural gas as the primary worldwide energy source for the next 30 years. The “End of Oil is not Near!” But while we’re on the subject, let’s view the outlook for the oil and gas industry, the price of oil, and what will you pay for gasoline three years from now? The writer of the article correctly points out that the world’s oil and gas industry is going through tough times, and let me add to that. Oil industry analysts are predicting 150 additional oil and gas companies will go bankrupt within the next 12 months. Of course, that sure sounds as if it’s curtains for the industry. But it’s not, and this is why. The pandemic has reduced the overall demand for oil by between 17% and 20%. That simply means instead of 90 million barrels of oil a day the world only needs a little over 70 million barrels a day. A few months back when the worldwide oil consumption was 90 million barrels a day, and the pandemic hit, the demand for oil dropped like a rock, and there was immediately a huge surplus of oil on the market. That actually drove the price of oil down to below $0, and that whopping drop in the price of oil immediately caused the layoff of over 100,000 oil related workers and the scaling back of countless billions of new oil and gas drilling |investments. The oil boom of the American shale oil horizontal wells was over for the time being, and as rigs were stacked and drilling was reduced, worldwide oil production began to drop. It continues to drop. OPEC, by reducing production, has brought the price of oil back up to above $35/bbl, but most shale oil production needs for oil to sell for at least $50 per barrel, or they will lose money. That’s why the job losses and production decline will continue, and a company, which depends on cash flow from new shale oil wells that aren’t going to be drilled, won’t be able to pay their bank notes, and they will declare bankruptcy. Many of the shale oil wells have a first year decline of over 40%, so in order for a company to keep their production levels up, and pay their bankers, they must drill. So while the price of oil is well below breakeven, they are not going to drill, and the wells they have are going to steadily decline. The pandemic, by reducing the demand for oil, has already removed millions of barrels of oil from the market, and because thousands of these shale oil wells are approaching being uneconomical, they will be shut in and never produce again, and millions of barrels more will leave the market. With the current near-term outlook and price of oil, small companies that were active shale oil drillers, won’t be back to drill and the banks who financed them won’t return for another round. The shale plays will return some day, but not until another boom roars through the oil patch. Another boom? Yes, and that’s not my wild dream. It is from Christyan Malek, of JPMorgan Chase who is head of Europe, Middle East and African Oil and Gas research. He said the oil market could be on the cusp of a “supercycle” that sends Brent crude skyrocketing to as high as $190 a barrel in 2025. The rational for higher oil prices says, as a virus vaccine stops the pandemic, the world will quickly ramp up travel etc, and the demand for oil will return to pre-pandemic levels. No one knows how quickly, but it will probably will take most of 2021 to return to pre-pandemic levels. However, the pent up demand to travel for business or pleasure may swell the world market need for oil back up to even higher that 90 million barrels of oil a day by the end of 2022, and that will cause a rush to add oil production to the current 70 million bbls that will be on the market. However, all of that extra 15 to 20 million barrels of oil won’t be readily available, and when demand outstrips supply, the price of oil will rise. The price of oil for the past 40 years or so has been a roller coaster that roared up to nearly $130 per bbl, and down to below $10/bbl. It seems to me that because the supply of oil will be definitively impacted by the crippling pandemic blow, restoring the level of production to keep the oil market in balance will be difficult. It will take years for oil companies to bring their exploration budgets back up to pre-pandemic levels, and years more to discover and bring more oil to the market. The huge 80 mile long Saudi field, Ghawar, the lynchpin of Saudi oil production, has been producing since the 1950s and industry experts believe it can only make up a portion of the needed oil production. Yes, the pandemic gave us a wounded oil industry as it did the travel industry, but the difference is, while the travel industry can recover quickly, the oil industry is just the opposite. It will take years to recover, because banks aren’t going to be standing in line to get burned again after the shale fiascos, and most of the former small shale players are long gone. But that’s not all. Every oil exploration company in the world cut their budget drastically when the pandemic hit, and that means a corresponding reduction in new oil coming on line. That, when combined with the normal yearly decline of existing wells, means there will be less worldwide capacity to make up the demand. In a few short years, we would need over 20 million barrels more of oil a day, when compared to today’s worldwide production, and by late 2021 and even more. Even with the Saudis and Russians cranking up production, it would be hard to reach that level, and OPEC would be in control again. A few years back a Saudi Oil Minister said “I think a hundred dollars a barrel is a fair price for oil.” Would an undersupplied oil market drive the price of oil to a price of $190/bbl, which in turn would drive the price of gasoline to an unheard of $8 to $10 a gallon? Maybe. You Smackover independents with those 5 bbls of oil a day wells hang in there.

 

*That is the exact title of the feature article in the latest Sierra Club magazine. Well, since I’m an oilman and a Sierra Club member, I couldn’t wait to read how the oil industry, which I have worked in for nearly 50 years, was going to go kaput. I won’t go into details of how the writer of the article came up with that eye-grabbing title, but let me just say this. The article is long, sleep inducing.....and just plain wrong.

            The writer is wrong for several reasons, and the first and foremost is the energy replacement for oil is just not here yet. Even the most optimistic scenarios for the use of the alternative energy still has oil and natural gas as the primary worldwide energy source for the next 30 years. The “End of Oil is not Near!”

But while we’re on the subject, let’s view the outlook for the oil and gas industry, the price of oil, and what will you pay for gasoline three years from now? The writer of the article correctly points out that the world’s oil and gas industry is going through tough times, and let me add to that. Oil industry analysts are predicting 150 additional oil and gas companies will go bankrupt within the next 12 months. Of course, that sure sounds as if it’s curtains for the industry. But it’s not, and this is why. The pandemic has reduced the overall demand for oil by between 17% and 20%. That simply means instead of 90 million barrels of oil a day the world only needs a little over 70 million barrels a day.

A few months back when the worldwide oil consumption was 90 million barrels a day, and the pandemic hit, the demand for oil dropped like a rock, and there was immediately a huge surplus of oil on the market. That actually drove the price of oil down to below $0, and that whopping drop in the price of oil immediately caused the layoff of over 100,000 oil related workers and the scaling back of countless billions of new oil and gas drilling |investments. The oil boom of the American shale oil horizontal wells was over for the time being, and as rigs were stacked and drilling was reduced, worldwide oil production began to drop. It continues to drop.

OPEC, by reducing production, has brought the price of oil back up to above $35/bbl, but most shale oil production needs for oil to sell for at least $50 per barrel, or they will lose money. That’s why the job losses and production decline will continue, and a company, which depends on cash flow from new shale oil wells that aren’t going to be drilled, won’t be able to pay their bank notes, and they will declare bankruptcy. Many of the shale oil wells have a first year decline of over 40%, so in order for a company to keep their production levels up, and pay their bankers, they must drill. So while the price of oil is well below breakeven, they are not going to drill, and the wells they have are going to steadily decline. The pandemic, by reducing the demand for oil, has already removed millions of barrels of oil from the market, and because thousands of these shale oil wells are approaching being uneconomical, they will be shut in and never produce again, and millions of barrels more will leave the market.

            With the current near-term outlook and price of oil, small companies that were active shale oil drillers, won’t be back to drill and the banks who financed them won’t return for another round.  The shale plays will return some day, but not until another boom roars through the oil patch. Another boom? Yes, and that’s not my wild dream. It is from Christyan Malek, of JPMorgan Chase who is head of Europe, Middle East and African Oil and Gas research. He said the oil market could be on the cusp of a “supercycle” that sends Brent crude skyrocketing to as high as $190 a barrel in 2025.

The rational for higher oil prices says, as a virus vaccine stops the pandemic, the world will quickly ramp up travel etc, and the demand for oil will return to pre-pandemic levels. No one knows how quickly, but it will probably will take most of 2021 to return to pre-pandemic levels. However, the pent up demand to travel for business or pleasure may swell the world market need for oil back up to even higher that 90 million barrels of oil a day by the end of 2022, and that will cause a rush to add oil production to the current 70 million bbls that will be on the market. However, all of that extra 15 to 20 million barrels of oil won’t be readily available, and when demand outstrips supply, the price of oil will rise. The price of oil for the past 40 years or so has been a roller coaster that roared up to nearly $130 per bbl, and down to below $10/bbl. It seems to me that because the supply of oil will be definitively impacted by the crippling pandemic blow, restoring the level of production to keep the oil market in balance will be difficult. It will take years for oil companies to bring their exploration budgets back up to pre-pandemic levels, and years more to discover and bring more oil to the market. The huge 80 mile long Saudi field, Ghawar, the lynchpin of Saudi oil production, has been producing since the 1950s and industry experts believe it can only make up a portion of the needed oil production.

            Yes, the pandemic gave us a wounded oil industry as it did the travel industry, but the difference is, while the travel industry can recover quickly, the oil industry is just the opposite. It will take years to recover, because banks aren’t going to be standing in line to get burned again after the shale fiascos, and most of the former small shale players are long gone. But that’s not all. Every oil exploration company in the world cut their budget drastically when the pandemic hit, and that means a corresponding reduction in new oil coming on line. That, when combined with the normal yearly decline of existing wells, means there will be less worldwide capacity to make up the demand. In a few short years, we would need over 20 million barrels more of oil a day, when compared to today’s worldwide production, and by late 2021 and even more. Even with the Saudis and Russians cranking up production, it would be hard to reach that level, and OPEC would be in control again. A few years back a Saudi Oil Minister said “I think a hundred dollars a barrel is a fair price for oil.”

Would an undersupplied oil market drive the price of oil to a price of $190/bbl, which in turn would drive the price of gasoline to an unheard of $8 to $10 a gallon?

            Maybe.

You Smackover independents with those 5 bbls of oil a day wells hang in there.

 

Picking up Kids and Losing Power I have two items I want to write about. Getting kids to school and back and underground utilities, and from what I have observed, both items need our attention. First, getting kids back and forth from school. I have noticed in this pandemic, it has become a nightmare. Lines to drop off kids and pick them up stretch around the block, and if you have been in one of those lines, I feel sorry for you. This pandemic has caused simple things to become very difficult, and all of a sudden just getting a kid back and forth from school is a real headache. There should be a better way, and there is. First, let’s look back...way back to when I was in grade school. I lived a little less than a mile from school, and you couldn’t ride the bus unless you lived over a mile from school. Yes, we had a car, but I was never driven to school or picked up from school, and at age eight, I just walked. Now let’s fast forward to our today’s endless lines to drop off or pick up kids. Surely we can come up with a better way to get kids to school and back. Of course, safety is a primary concern, but with extra police patrols in our school neighborhoods, and organizations such as Parent’s Patrol, hundreds of kids can walk to school, or ride a bike to school, or carpool or meet in an off school parking lot to drop off or pick up kids. The problem is not that difficult to solve, and it would save thousands of moms and a few dads hundreds of hours a month. Or why don’t we do what some colleges are doing, which is to encourage electric scooters. It seems, in El Dorado, that teens and preteens are renting them as an entertainment item to buzz around downtown. However, that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to their uses. The University of Arkansas has seen the number of scooters on campus mushroom, and these aren’t joy riders who rent one for an hour or so. These students own their electric scooters, and they ride them because they get to class quicker and parking is easy. Traffic around the campus is terrible, and there is never enough parking for +20,000 students. Scooters, ebikes, and regular bikes have seen a huge percentage increase in sales over the past year. Our cities, states, and the rest of us need to realize it’s not 1965 and get with the programs. Last year, before the pandemic hit, we were on vacation in New York City and watched as tie-wearing businessmen zipped by, weaving through traffic on scooters—-why? Because scooters are a better way to get from one place to another when there is heavy traffic and no place to park. Or you can get your kid a motorized skateboard or just let them use a regular one. My granddaughter and her boyfriend commuted to work when they lived in San Francisco, on a skateboard for two. To say we’re a bit behind the curve is an understatement. No, I don’t think we’re going to see a swarm of El Dorado students zip by on motorized skateboards, but we sure have the ability to get kids to school without lining up in a string of cars a half mile long. I wouldn’t sit in a car and line up thirty minutes ahead of when school lets out, because there’s a better way, and if it meant putting my kid on a scooter so be it, and if my kids had to walk a few or maybe 10 blocks, I would put good walking shoes on them and shoo them out the door, and if I had safety concerns, I would walk with them. A couple of miles a day walk will do you a world of good. When the new El Dorado High School was under construction, I met with the Superintendent of Schools and asked that sidewalks be built to link the school to the residential areas nearby. I was told no. What should have happened was a six foot wide sidewalk from the school to a monitored traffic walkway on Hillsboro Street, then let the city continue up Timberlane with a new sidewalk to Main Street. Every city should connect schools, shopping and recreation areas, with sidewalks and trails. El Dorado’s trail plan has already been done. Fifteen years ago Dr. Glasser and team from the U of A worked a year on a city plan, and the result was breathtaking. A detailed plan for the city, and part of it was to create a network of trails that would be wonderful today, but we didn’t construct one foot of trails. What if your child could just walk down a sidewalk that connected to a trail and walk on to school. Well, considering the snail’s pace of city governments it may be a while before we see a lot of either trails or linking sidewalks. But it doesn’t have to be fifty years from now. Tell your mayor to form a committee to recommend a series of new linking sidewalks and trails that would connect every school in the city. If you want an example check, the sidewalks and trails that are already active in Seattle. Today, 30% of Seattle downtown workers walk, bike, or use scooters. El Dorado, as late as the 50s, had sidewalk crews who added sidewalks from downtown into the various neighborhood, and if you live where these old sidewalks are still present, your kids can walk at least part of the way to schools. Most cities stopped putting in sidewalks in the early 60s, and in residential areas, they stopped repairing them. Today progressive cities are building sidewalks and trails. Are we doomed to always be 25 years behind the curve? Sidewalks and trails to shopping areas and schools should be a priority in every town in the state. & And now to the other gripe I have, and it is a simple one. Its past time to ignore the need to put electrical utilities underground, and it can be done without breaking the bank. Of course, downtown El Dorado never has a power outage, and we didn’t have one when Laura came whistling by. Why? We have underground utilities! Arkansas needs, just for starters, a mandate for underground utilities in all new construction, and a statewide plan to gradually, over the next 25 years, to add a percentage of the state with underground utilities each year. In every town and city in the state there are thousands of electrical lines hanging from poles, and the odds of a thunderstorm taking one of them out or an ice storm or just old age guarantees some Arkansawyers will be without power when it rains or storms or ices. Yes, it can be done, if we have elective officials who have enough backbone to demand it. Kids getting kids to school easily, and houses not losing power every time a thunderstorm roars though the state, is not too much to ask.

Fantasy Hog Football

 

          Fantasy Hog Football

My columns have been way too serious lately, so going to pick some Hog football wins and losses. It’s SEC Fantasy Football with a Hog look, and while I’m at it, I have a few pointers to give our cheerleaders, bands, and mascots.

Let’s start with the overall schedule, and according to most of the pundits, it’s the toughest schedule ever in the history of football, and if the Hogs played in the NFL it would be a step down. Well. I’m not bothered a bit with the omission of the “Little Sisters of Mercy” schools being dropped. Course, I’m not coaching or playing, but heck, if you knock off one of them it’s a “so what?” and God forbid, if they whip up on the Hogs, its coach changing time.

The season starts September 26 with Georgia, the team with ugliest mascot in the SEC, a fat, squatty dog named Uga. Being the ugliest is hard to do ‘cause you have to be uglier than a hog. Georgia will probably be suiting up walk-ons, but since Hog Coach P. knows all the Georgia secrets, and the overconfident Georgia team has already written up a win, the Hogs will surprise the Dogs, and will win in a squeaker 14 to 10. And Asa will designate September 26 as a state holiday.

Well, the Hogs won’t be underdogs when they head for cowbell country, which is Mississippi State. Yes, ringing those cowbells can get on your nerves, and I would imagine the sale of hearing aids in Mississippi is pretty lucrative. However, the Hogs will still be celebrating the big Georgia victory, and won’t be at the top of their game. It’s going to be a close game, but another dog team in the SEC will pull it out and Mississippi[RM1]  State will take a 20 to 17 win. Say Mississippi State folks: four dog teams are three to many in the SEC. Get another mascot. How about the Cows---you know like cowbells?

In game three the Hogs are on the road to Auburn, and old what’s his name, the Arkansas turncoat coach, will be lying in wait, and it won’t be good day for Hogs. They’ll come back to Fayetteville with two hams missing, and a 14 to 3 loss. But there is light at the end of the tunnel, and it ain’t a freight train, it’s Ole Miss. The Rebels will roll into Fayetteville, and the U of A band won’t be playing Dixie. Actually, I think the band should work up a “Nobody Knows the Trouble I’ve Seen” as a theme song. Well, while I’m talking about the band, I recommend a new 2020 look. Maybe Snoop Dogg could design something, and get rid of those hats. I see a red baseball cap with “Make the Hogs Great Again” on it. Of course, our female cheerleaders might ask Lady Gaga for a little wardrobe help. But it’s a home game for the hogs, and my bet is Razorback Stadium will be packed and roaring for the Hogs. It’s the Hogs by two field goals, 27-21, and Arkansas’s virus cases will spike to 4000 a day for the next two weeks.

Then its head down to Texas A & M. Yeah, I can’t stand those Aggies. The Corp goes over the top even when they are getting killed. When we lived in Texas and went to College Station to watch the Hogs play, and the Corp booed when our band played the U of A’s Alma Mata, was when I put those suckers in my low rent category. And they have another stupid dog as a mascot named Reveille Hey, you morons, we have way too many dog mascots already in the SEC. You need a new mascot. How about the “Lizards?” Well, the Hogs will have found a quarterback by this time in the schedule, and a series zippie passes and a running quarterback will knock off the Aggies, 32 to 17.

Then it’s back to the hill to play another dog team. Evidently, some folks think if you are in the SEC you have to have dog as a mascot. Well, Tennessee has Smokey # 10 a really dumb looking hound dog, and yes they are also called the Vols, since most sportswriters can’t spell Volunteers. But since their colors are a sick orange, and they look a little too much like Texas burnt orange, I developed an immediate dislike for Tennessee. However, the Hogs will roll as our new quarterback will run circles around the Vols, and Arkansas picks up another win. It’s a 21 to 10, Hogs, and for the first time since, only God know when, the Hogs have won three in a row.

Well, with a whopping three game winning streak the Hogs will head for Florida with their heads in the sky, and that’s why they will get their collective asses kicked. My crystal ball says “The Swamp” will do in the Hogs. I’m seeing a gator go, chomp, chomp; Florida 14, Hogs 3.

Now its payback time, and the battered and bloodied Hogs will return to their pen in Fayetteville to face the over-ranked LSU Tigers—well at least they aren’t dogs. Yes, I know there are at least 50 other football teams called the Tigers, but Louisiana isn’t known for being original. I think LSU will be ranked number one. It’s the big upset of the season as I see it, and if we don’t get a forfeit, (Louisiana is also number one in the virus category) a final minute field goal wins it, 24-21.

Yes, by game 9 with Missouri the Hogs will have their game down, and they will roll. Of course, I have a problem with Missouri’s mascot, the Tigers. Come on guys! We already have enough Tigers. When you folks play LSU do you just yell “Go Tigers” and figure you have a winner one way or another. I guess I’m going to have to come up with a name, and it seems Missouri is just up there in never-never land and maybe just the “Nobodies” would fit them. Yeah, the Hogs will take Missouri by two touchdowns, 28-14, but nobody will care.

Hogs are on a roll, and some folks picking them to knock off Alabama, which is rumored to have genetically engineered pom-pom girls, but our Hogs have been reading their press clipping and checking on bowl games instead of getting fired up to meet Alabama, and it will be another slaughter, but not as bad as the really bad slaughters in the past, but the Hogs will lose. As the Hogs stagger off the field a packed home crowd will cheer them as if they had won, (Hog fans reached crowd immunity after the Ole Miss game) and the buzz will be “Coach P. can coach.” Sorry, but my crystal ball sees a 28 to 10 Crimson Tide (at least they aren’t another dog or tiger team.) win.

Those are my Fantasy-Hog Football picks, folks. I believe the hogs will go 5-5, even though the pundit’s consensus says they will get 1.5 wins. I guess they don’t count Missouri as a full win.

 

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 [RM1]